Pure Benchmarks · Data

Should I Sell My Stocks Before the Fed Meeting?

Updated November 4, 2026

Short answer

Across the 47 scheduled Federal Reserve rate decisions from January 2021 to October 2026, the S&P 500 rose on 20 decision days and fell on 27, with an average move of 0.95% against 0.74% on a typical day. Selling the day before each decision and buying back the day after would have dodged some sharp days but also missed the rebounds: $10,000 held from January 2021 grew to about $19,590, while sitting out all 47 decision windows left about $19,230. Twenty trading days after a decision the index was higher 33 times out of 46.

Every Fed meeting comes with a wave of predictions about rates and what they will do to stocks, and it is tempting to step aside until the decision is out. This page tests that idea on real data instead of opinion. We took every scheduled rate decision from the Federal Reserve’s published calendar between January 2021 and October 2026 and measured the S&P 500 on the decision day, the day after, and the following month.

Link your portfolio and see, in dollars, what your own holdings would have done if you had held through past crashes instead of selling. Every sale and re-entry after that is scored against staying invested.

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S&P 500 on Fed decision days, January 2021 to October 2026

Measure	Result
Scheduled rate decisions	47
Decision days the index rose	20
Decision days the index fell	27
Average size of the decision-day move	0.95%
Average size of a typical day’s move since 2021	0.74%
Biggest decision-day rise	+3.0% on May 4, 2022
Biggest decision-day fall	-2.9% on December 18, 2024
Higher 20 trading days after the decision	33 of 46
$10,000 held from January 26, 2021	about $19,590
Same $10,000, out of the market around all 47 decisions	about $19,230

Decision dates from the Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar. Daily S&P 500 index closes to November 2, 2026, prices only, dividends not included. The sit-out rule sells at the close the day before each decision and buys back at the close the day after. Calculated by Pure Benchmarks.

Fed days move more, in both directions

The index moved about a quarter more on decision days than on an ordinary day, but the direction was close to a coin toss: 20 up, 27 down. The rise and the fall were also hard to tell apart in advance. The biggest decision-day gain, 3.0% on May 4, 2022, was followed by a 3.6% fall the next day, so an investor who reacted to the first day was wrong by the second.

Stepping aside barely changed the result

An investor who sold at the close before every decision and bought back at the close the day after spent 94 trading days out of the market over almost six years. That avoided some sharp falls and missed some sharp rises, and the two nearly cancelled out: about $19,230 at the end against about $19,590 for holding. The extra trades, any taxes on gains, and the risk of not buying back on time all sit on the wrong side of that gap.

The bigger risk is staying out longer

The sit-out rule above is generous, because it buys back the very next day. In practice, people who sell before a decision often wait for the dust to settle. Twenty trading days after a decision, the S&P 500 was higher 33 times out of 46, with an average gain of 1.65%. Waiting a month for clarity usually meant buying back higher.

What a rate decision can and cannot change

A rate decision matters for borrowing costs, bond prices and the value markets put on future earnings. But most decisions are widely expected before they happen, so the price has already moved. What surprises markets is usually the guidance about future meetings, which is just as hard to predict as the decision itself. If your time horizon or need for cash has not changed, a meeting date on its own is a weak reason to change the portfolio.

Measure your own record

If you have traded around Fed meetings before, your transaction history shows whether it helped. Pure Benchmarks, our own product, compares each change you made with the portfolio you would have kept, from a linked account, and ranks the portfolio against verified investors in the same risk category.

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Frequently asked questions

Should I sell my stocks before the Fed meeting?

Across 47 scheduled decisions since January 2021, the S&P 500 fell on 27 decision days and rose on 20, and selling the day before each one and buying back the day after left an investor slightly behind holding. This page is information for comparison and not a recommendation about any holding.

What does the stock market do on Fed days?

Since 2021 the S&P 500 has moved an average of 0.95% on decision days, against 0.74% on a typical day. The direction has been close to even: 20 rises and 27 falls in 47 decisions.

Do stocks go up or down after a rate cut?

It depends on whether the cut was expected and what the Fed says about the future. Most decisions are priced in before they are announced, so the reaction is to the surprise rather than the decision.

Should I wait until after the Fed meeting to invest?

Twenty trading days after a decision, the S&P 500 was higher 33 times out of 46 since 2021. Waiting for clarity has more often meant paying a higher price than a lower one.

How can I tell if trading around Fed meetings helped me?

Compare your portfolio with the version where you held through each meeting. Pure Benchmarks, our own product, automates that comparison from connected holdings.

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This page is an information baseline for comparison only. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy, sell, replace, or transfer any specific asset, account, or firm. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All figures shown are illustrative.