Pure Benchmarks · Guide

What Would My Old Portfolio Be Worth If I Had Kept It?

Short answer

To see what your old portfolio would be worth now, take the exact holdings you had before the change, keep the same share counts, and value them at today’s prices with dividends reinvested. Then compare that figure with your actual portfolio after adjusting both for any money you added or withdrew since. The difference is what the change earned or cost you. This kept-portfolio comparison is called a buy-and-hold counterfactual, and it is the fairest way to judge whether a portfolio change helped.

Almost every investor who changes a portfolio wonders later whether the old one would have done better. Most never find out, because the comparison is fiddly: share counts, dividends, splits and new deposits all get in the way. This page explains how to rebuild the portfolio you had, how to compare it fairly with the one you have, and how to have every future change scored automatically.

Link your portfolio and every change you make is scored against the portfolio you would have kept, in dollars, so you can see which decisions helped and which cost you.

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Freeze the holdings, not the balance

The old portfolio is the list of holdings and share counts you owned the day before the change, not its dollar value. Keep those share counts, add the dividends they would have paid, adjust for any splits, and price them today. That is what the portfolio would be worth if you had left it alone.

Adjust for money in and out

If you added savings or took money out after the change, your actual balance moved for reasons that have nothing to do with the decision. A fair comparison gives the old portfolio the same deposits and withdrawals, or measures both versions with the flows removed. Otherwise a deposit looks like a great decision and a withdrawal like a bad one.

Compare the same dates and the same prices

Use the same start date and the same closing prices for both versions. Mixing a broker’s live price for one side with an older close for the other can create a gap that is really just timing. A gap of a few dollars on a large account is noise; a consistent gap across many changes is a pattern.

Look at every change, not the memorable one

One switch that worked out is easy to remember, and a few that did not are easy to forget. Scoring each change separately, then looking at the share of changes that beat the kept portfolio, gives a more honest picture than any single example.

Have it done for every change

Pure Benchmarks, our own product, does this from a linked portfolio. Its Decision Benchmark freezes the holdings before each change, tracks that kept portfolio alongside your real one with deposits and withdrawals neutralised, and shows in dollars whether each decision helped. It also ranks your decision record against verified investors in the same risk category.

Link your portfolio and every change you make is scored against the portfolio you would have kept, in dollars, so you can see which decisions helped and which cost you.

See Your Free Benchmark Report

Frequently asked questions

How do I find out what my old portfolio would be worth today?

Take the holdings and share counts from just before the change, reinvest their dividends, adjust for splits and value them at today’s prices. Compare that with your actual portfolio after removing any deposits or withdrawals.

What is a buy-and-hold counterfactual?

It is the portfolio you would have had if you had made no change: the same holdings kept from a chosen date. Comparing it with your actual portfolio shows what a decision added or cost.

Should I count deposits when comparing old and new portfolios?

Not as gains. New money raises the balance without any decision being good or bad, so a fair comparison removes deposits and withdrawals from both versions.

What if my old portfolio would have done better?

One result does not prove the change was wrong, and the reasons for it may still hold. Looking at all your changes together shows whether there is a pattern. This page is information for comparison and not a recommendation about any holding.

Is there a tool that tracks my old portfolio automatically?

Pure Benchmarks, our own product, keeps a frozen copy of your portfolio before each change and compares it with your real one, using linked accounts.

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This page is an information baseline for comparison only. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy, sell, replace, or transfer any specific asset, account, or firm. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All figures shown are illustrative.