Pure Benchmarks · Data
What Selling in a Market Drop Has Cost Since 2018
Updated
Short answer
$10,000 put in the S&P 500 on January 2, 2018 and held was worth $28,118 on October 30, 2026, using daily index closes without dividends. An investor who sold every time the index fell 10% from its high and bought back only once it regained that high ended with $15,838, about $12,280 or 44% less, across five round trips. Selling only at a 20% drop did no better: $15,942. Missing just the 10 best days left $14,654, and 8 of those 10 days came within two weeks of one of the 20 worst days.
Every market drop comes with the same question: get out now and come back when it is safe, or sit through it? This page answers it with data rather than opinion. We took every trading day of the S&P 500 from January 2, 2018 to October 30, 2026, 2,220 closes in all, and tested simple sell-and-wait rules against holding. The rules are deliberately generous to the seller, because they buy back as soon as the index regains its old high rather than waiting for the news to improve.
Link your portfolio and see, in dollars, what your own holdings would have done if you had held through past crashes instead of selling. Every sale and re-entry after that is scored against staying invested.
See Your Free Benchmark ReportEvery S&P 500 drop of 10% or more since 2018
| High | Low | Fall | Back to the high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2018 | Feb 8, 2018 | -10.2% | Aug 24, 2018 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | -19.8% | Apr 23, 2019 |
| Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | -33.9% | Aug 18, 2020 |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | -25.4% | Jan 19, 2024 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | -18.9% | Jun 27, 2025 |
Daily S&P 500 index closes, January 2, 2018 to October 30, 2026. Prices only; dividends are not included. Calculated by Pure Benchmarks.
Rule one: sell at a 10% drop, buy back at the old high
This rule sold five times: February 2018, November 2018, February 2020, February 2022 and March 2025. Each time it waited in cash until the index closed back at its previous high and then reinvested. It avoided the worst of every fall, but it bought back between 11% and 14% above where it sold in every round trip, and the 2022 wait lasted almost two years. $10,000 became $15,838, against $28,118 for holding.
Rule two: wait for a 20% drop before selling
A stricter trigger sold only twice, on March 12, 2020 and June 13, 2022, and both times it sold close to the bottom. It bought back at 3,390 in August 2020 after selling at 2,481, and at 4,840 in January 2024 after selling at 3,750. The result, $15,942, was almost the same as the first rule. Selling later in a fall does not help much if the buy-back waits for the recovery to be obvious.
The best days arrive in the worst weeks
Seven of the ten best days since 2018 came in March and April 2020, in the middle of the fastest fall in the period. The best single day was April 9, 2025, up 9.5%, one day after the 2025 low. In all, 8 of the 10 best days fell within ten trading days of one of the 20 worst days. Missing the 5 best days cut the result from $28,118 to $18,888; missing 20 left $10,583, barely above the starting amount after almost nine years.
What this does not say
These are rules applied to an index, not advice about any portfolio. They leave out dividends, interest on cash and taxes, and a real investor might have sold or bought back at different points. Some investors have good reasons to reduce risk, such as needing the money soon. The point is narrower: on this data, selling because the market was falling and waiting for a recovery to buy back cost far more than it saved.
Run it on your own dates
The free calculator linked below uses the same daily closes: enter when you sold and when you bought back to see the dollar gap. Pure Benchmarks, our own product, goes further for a connected account, scoring every sale and purchase you made against the portfolio you would have had without it.
Link your portfolio and see, in dollars, what your own holdings would have done if you had held through past crashes instead of selling. Every sale and re-entry after that is scored against staying invested.
See Your Free Benchmark ReportFrequently asked questions
How much did selling during market drops cost since 2018?
On S&P 500 closes from January 2018 to October 2026, $10,000 held grew to $28,118. Selling at every 10% drop and buying back at the old high ended at $15,838, about 44% less.
How many times did the S&P 500 fall 10% or more since 2018?
Five times: early 2018 (-10.2%), late 2018 (-19.8%), 2020 (-33.9%), 2022 (-25.4%) and 2025 (-18.9%). Each one regained its previous high, the longest taking until January 2024.
What happens if you miss the best days in the market?
On this data, missing the 10 best days since 2018 turned $28,118 into $14,654, and missing the 20 best left $10,583. Most of the best days came within two weeks of the worst ones.
Do these numbers include dividends?
No. They use index prices only. Dividends would raise the held result and the time spent invested by each rule, so the gap between holding and selling would be slightly larger.
Is this advice to never sell?
No. It is historical data about simple timing rules on one index. Whether to change your own portfolio depends on your plan, and this page is information, not a recommendation about any holding.
Keep exploring
- What If I Had Stayed Invested? Calculator
- What Happens If I Sell and Miss the Market Recovery?
- Should I Sell My Stocks Before the Next Market Crash?
- Panic Selling vs Staying Invested, Measured on Your Own Portfolio
- Cash Drag Calculator
- Free Investing Calculators
- Did Rebalancing My Portfolio Actually Help?
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This page is an information baseline for comparison only. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy, sell, replace, or transfer any specific asset, account, or firm. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All figures shown are illustrative.